GeoTime and nSpace2

Oculus Info Inc.

Authors and Affiliations:

Lynn Chien, Oculus Info, lchien@oculusinfo.com

Adeel Khamisa, Oculus Info, akhamisa.oculusinfo.com

Pascale Proulx, Oculus Info, pproulx@oculusinfo.com

Annie Tat, Oculus Info, atat@oculusinfo.com

Daniel Cheng, Oculus Info, dcheng@oculusinfo.com
William Wright, Oculus Info, bwright@oculusinfo.com

Two Page Summary:

Tool(s):

GeoTime: GeoTime v2.6 supports the visualization and analysis of entities and events over time and geography within a 3D space. Entity movements, events, relationships, and interactions over time within a spatial context can be easily seen and understood. GeoTime includes events animation, keyword search, link analysis, imagery display, geometry display, annotation and numerous other analytical functions. GeoTime supports the extension Configurable Spaces, a novel visual analytical method for visualizing patterns of activity over time in complex diagrammatically represented systems. Configurable Spaces extends GeoTime's X, Y, T coordinate workspace space for temporal analysis to any arbitrary diagrammatic work space by replacing a geographic map with a diagram.[See Kapler, T., R. Eccles, R. Harper, W. Wright, Configurable Spaces: Temporal Analysis in Diagrammatic Contexts, Accepted for IEEE VAST 2008 Conference.]

nSpace2: nSpace2 is the web version of nSpace, an environment supporting the whole analytical workflow from brainstorming and creating hypotheses, to querying, scanning, comparing, reading and annotating, evidence marshaling and reasoning, to evidence assessment, collaboration and reporting. It has two main components: TRIST, focused on information triage, and the Sandbox, for evidence marshaling and analytical sense-making. nSpace2 (still in beta) isthe advanced web version of nSpace; however, it currently has only a subsetof the capabilities that its parent nSpace has. Nevertheless, its core initial capabilities and in particular its strength in supporting multiple analysts working on related projects were definitively key to this team's analytical process.[See Wright, William, D. Schroh, P. Proulx, A. Skaburskis and B. Cort, The Sandbox for Analysis - Concepts and Methods, paper accepted for ACM CHI 2006.]

Excel Visualizer: Oculus Excel Visualizer is a Microsoft Excel® extension designed to give users immediate understanding of the data that drives their business intelligence. By leveraging the ubiquity, power and ease-of-use provided by Excel spreadsheets, Oculus has created a new paradigm in rapid data visualization. Users can now take advantage of our integrated charting capabilities to provide new views on data to provide further insight and comprehension.

ANSWERS:

Video

Grand-1 Based on ALL the data available (i.e. using the data from all 4 mini - challenges) what is the social network of the Paraiso movement at the end of the time period?

Grand-2 What name or names can be associated with individual activities?

Grand-3 What is the geographical range of the Paraiso Movement and how it changes over time?

See Question #4

Grand-4 How do the major beliefs of the Paraiso movement affect their activities?

Video

Debrief

The Paraiso Movement & The Migration and Wikipedia Monitoring

Shown on the Wikipedia page, the Paraiso Manifesto states that the father is the head of the house while the government should only exist to provide social services and infrastructure. The government should not be allowed to interfere with disputes between houses or provide medical services to family members without the permission of the head of the household.

These tenets affect the activities of Paraiso in two major ways.

1. Paraiso tenets and activities cause many local governments to interefere with the Movement. This causes the members to move around in order to establish a base where the government will be least likely to interfere.
2. Those who disagree with the Paraiso tenets and activities vandalize or make negative remarks on the Wikipedia pages, causing supporters to monitor and troll Wikipedia edits.

From all the wiki-related pages, it appears that the Paraiso Movement has been active in many parts of the world, including the Caribbean islands, Southern U.S., Spain, Belgium, and Mexico. However, given the banning, prosecution, and crackdown on the movement in various parts of the world, the motive behind Paraiso's attempt to spread themselves seems to be the need to flee their island and establish a stable base elsewhere. Further, it appears that high-level members of the Paraiso Movement, namely members of the Catalano and Vidro family, are coordinating the migration in order to shift the Movement from the island. The main factor for their choice of landing over the years has been finding a route and destination free of interdictions.

It can be seen that the Paraiso Movement has been in disagreement with many different governments, including:

• The government of Isla Del Sueno: There is a crackdown on the island causing mass migration from the island
• The government of Mexico: Mexico has banned the movement.
• The government of Belgium: There has been prosecutions by the Belgian government.
• The Department of Health (DOH) in Florida: There has been interventions by the DOH.

The high-level members of the Paraiso Movement organzing the migration movement is shown through the ten-day cell phone data in conjunction with the migration data. The visualization of the combined datasets shows an overlap in time and that areas in which the Catalano and Vidro clans have been making and receiving calls are the points of departure for the migration boats. In 2006, migrant boats mostly launched from three main points. The ten-day call data in 2006 shows that the individuals of interest were making calls while travelling between two of the main locations. One individual remains in the third location without moving.

The ID numbers that move between the migration points while contacting each other are 200, 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 97, 107, 137, 281, 306 and 309 and they have been identified in Challenge #3. They are:

• Ferdinando Catalano: ID 200 and possibly 107, who moves around the central launch point.
• Estaban Catalano: ID 5 and 306, who moves between two launch points
• David Vidro: ID 1 and 309, who moves around the area of the central launch point
• Juan and Jorge Vidro: ID 2, 3, and possibly 137, who move around the area of the launch points
• Unidentified: ID 97, who stays in one launch point without moving
• Unidentified: ID 0, who moves between all three points
• Unidentified: ID 281, who frequently visits the central launch point

Besides the phone call network between the five people listed, we also know that the Catalano and Vidro families are important members of the Paraiso Movement and are in close connection with each other because:

• Ferdinando Catalano is the founder of the movement.
• Catalano has stated that he is heavily influened by Vidro.
• Pedro Vidro wrote a book about the values of the movement.
• Pedro Vidro's book was published by El Tiempo, the publisher of which Ferdinando Catalano is the Editor-in-Chief.
• David Vidro organizes high-level activities of the movement.
• Jesus Vidro and Eduardo Catalano attempted to migrate three times on the same boat. It is assumed that Eduardo Catalano and Jesus Vidro are a part of the two families because the value of family is the key tenet of the Paraiso Movement.

It is possible that caller 97, 0, 281 are Pedro Vidro, Jesus Vidro, and Eduardo Catalano as they do not seem to have roles in organizing the migration. However, there is no evidence to connect them.

The migration pattern from the island shows that their initial destination was Florida, but it changed to Mexico by 2007.

• In 2005, Florida Keys received 89.1% of the landings and the Mexico received the rest.
• In 2006, Florida Keys received 72.1% of the landings and Mexico received the rest.
• In 2007, Mexico becomes the main landing site with 56.6% of the landings.

Florida should be the favorable destination because the Florida state government on the whole has not found evidence of ill-behaviour from the movement. Mexico should be unfavorable because the Movement has been banned. Thus, the increase in the number of landings in Mexico shows that there was a need for the migrants to move away from the island, regardless of the destination. This is further proved by the migration patterns of Eduardo Catalano and Jesus Vidro, who attempted to migrate to Florida in the first two years but were intercepted by the U.S. Coast Guard. Their choice of Mexico, where they know they will not be interdicted, on their third attempt to leave the island shows their need to leave.

The need for members to flee from Isla Del Sueno can also be explained by the unethical activities that are being conducted. Between all the Wiki-related data, there are issues such as Ferdinando Catalano being accused of living of the generous donations and forcing his followers, including children, to work for him without compensation or benefits. There is also unethical behavior from other members as indicated in court-related matters in other countries. Although we are not provided with the official reason behind the crackdown of the Movement on the island, it is likely that there must be questionable operations. It is highly probable that members are trying to run from the crackdown on the island in order to avoid prosecution.

The possible unethical behavior displayed by members of the Movement also explains the need for supporters to defend the Movement on Wikipedia. Further, there are many contributers on Wikipedia who do not agree with the beliefs and tenents of the Paraiso Movement and see the movement as discriminating. Thus, there are supporters on Wikipedia who are trolling the Paraiso Movement page and ensuring that negative comments are neutralized. The most active troll on the page is VictoriaV, who has been supported many times by the user Savanna. They are often found to be supporting one another in their edits and reversions. There is evidence that these two major supporters could be Victoriano Tafoya and Savannah Tafoya, who have attempted to leave the island. Given that family value is one of the key tenets of the Paraiso Movement, we have assumed that the two supporters are most likely related.

The Paraiso Movement & The Department of Health Explosion

The evidence to associate the Paraiso Movement to the explosion at the Department of Health (DOH) proves to be inconclusive. Although there appears to be a motive for destroying the DOH, there is no conclusive evidence to point the movement as suspects for the explosion. It is even possible that the explosion might be an attempt to frame the Paraiso Movement.

One of the major tenets of the Movement is Home Health Care, thereby opposing medicines such as antibiotics and vaccines and medical treatments to household members without the permission of the Head of the House. The WikiEdits page indicates that there has been at least one instance of interference by the DOH around September 2006 . A confrontation occurred within the same time period that might have been caused by the interference. A few days after the update on the confrontation, "Alphanzo" vandalized the page by moving the page to “GUNNED DOWN SIX DOCTORS AND NURSES IN COLD BLOOD”. If the statement is true and not just simple vandalism, it is likely that it is due to the interference by the DOH.

Not too long after this mentioning of the killing of the doctors and nurses, there is unverified evidence on the WikiEdits page around November 2006 that Catalano is dead. Although there is no first name mentioned, we believe that the Catalano being referred to must be Ferdinando Catalano since he is the center of conversation for all Wikipedia discussions. There does not seem to be any dispute regarding the death statement in the following edits, which indicates that his death is true. However, the lack of discussion surrounding the matter also makes it uncertain whether the Catalano in question is in fact Ferdinando. It would be reasonable to believe that as the head of the movement, his death would have been bigger news and would have been mentioned in more detail. Nevertheless, alive or not, the activities of the movement did not seem to cease after his presumed death (migration was still happening and the Paraiso Movement page was still being updated).

In August 2007, an explosion occurred at the DOH resulting in casualties and infrastructural damage. It is suspected that the explosion is linked to the Paraiso movement, given their suspected violent tendencies demonstrated in gunning down doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, there is no proof of any direct disputes between the DOH and members of the movement around this period and thus direct motive is missing. The only possible motives could be the prior interference by the DOH in 2006, or that there has been further interference, of which the evidence has not been given. The possibility of further interference is not unlikely given that antibiotics and vaccines are vital medical treatments used to help patients stay alive.

Moreover, there is no evidence to suggest that known members of the movement are affiliated with this explosion. There is no record to indicate that any of the known high-level members migrated to Florida. The only possibility is if Eduardo Catalano and Jesus Vidro, who landed in Mexico in February 2007, moved to Florida to organize the event, but there is insufficient data to make that link. The only other relationship between the explosion and known members of the movement is the main suspect of the explosion, whose name is Ramon Katalanow - a last name that sounds like Catalano.

Prior to the explosion we see Ramon Katalanow go into two rooms and then heading towards the exit before the explosion. The first room he went into is where Fawn Sparks stopped moving right after the explosion. The second room he went into is where Gale Welsh and Lottie Staley stopped moving right after the explosion.This indicates that he might have left the device in those rooms. It is possible Katalanow might have purposely misspelled his last name when registering for the RFID tag. However, the person who had recorded his name could also have misspelled it by accident. Also, we can’t rule out the fact that Ramon Katalanow may have given this name to frame the incident on the Paraiso Movement with the intent of having it banned in Florida. There has been a growing number of protesters asking the U.S. government to ban the Movement from setting a base in Florida and Katalanow may have set this up to hasten the matter; however, there is no evidence of this. Further, there is no evidence of known members of the Paraiso Movement situated in Florida during the time of the explosion, nor is there evidence of Ramon's relationship with any other person involved in the movement. Thus, we can not assume that he is associated with the Paraiso movement until he is further questioned.

Another suspect for the explosion is Cecil Dennison who managed to escape the building. Just after the explosion he walked towards the exit passing a few people, these people ended up heading in another direction and became causalities. However, there is no connection found between him and other known members of the Paraiso movement.

One of the other tenets stated in the Manifesto is that "Female children are to be educated at home". Although there have been discussions on whether home schooling for girls is discriminatory, it does not seem to have caused any major problems in Florida.

Detailed Answer

Collaborating: Sharing resources and findings from mini challenges.

For this year's VAST contest, we had two junior and two senior analysts working on the challenges. Each mini challenge was analyzed by one analyst who would summarize and upload all his or her material to nSpace2 so they could be shared with the senior analysts who worked on the grand challenge. nSpace2 is a web-based application that allows users to work online and access other analysts' TRIST and Sandbox files that have been placed in the Shared Folders panel. Thus, the analyst working on the grand challenge can easily open a Sandbox file from the folder Evacuation to learn about the situation, taking important notes and copying relevant information, including entities and uploaded files, to the Pasteboard. nSpace2 allows for multiple Sandboxes to be made and linked for better organization of thoughts without losing speed. Figure 1 shows the Projects page where all the files are organized. Multiple TRIST and Sandbox files can be created in the projects page and organized in folders. Files can be created or added to the Shared Folders panel so other analysts who are logged into nSpace2 can see and edit the files.

Figure 1: a) TRIST and Sandbox files can be created and organized in folders. b) Double-clicking on a file will open the file in a new browser. c) Files were added to the Shared Folders to be viewed by other analysts.

Since the analyst working on the grand challenge did not work on any of the mini challenges, she began her analysis by looking at the Sandboxes for each challenge. The Sandbox is a flexible and expressive thinking environment where ideas are unrestricted and thoughts can flow freely and be recorded by pointing and typing anywhere in the Sandbox. The Pasteboard sits at the bottom panel of the browser and important information can be copied to it. The analyst can take the information from the Pasteboard and copy it to any other Sandbox to make assembling information more effective and efficient.. Each piece of information is represented by their icon and hovering over it will reveal the content. In Figure 2, notes, observations and images are copied from each Sandbox to the Pasteboard so this information can be used for her own analysis. Figures 3A and 3B show some examples of different Sandboxes made by different analysts from the mini challenges.

Figure 2: A Sandbox made by analyst for Mini Challenge 4. a) The entity Ramon Katalanow was copied to the Pasteboard because he is the main suspect. b) Notes were made when it was realized that Katalanow sounds like Catalano. c) The image of the explosion was copied to the Pasteboard to be used later. d) The navigation bar allows you go back to other nSpace2 pages if necessary.

Figure 3: Sandbox Examples. A)Left image: Sandbox of migration patterns made by analyst for Mini Challenge #2. B)Right image: Sandbox of cell phone social network made by analyst for Mini Challenge #3.

Assembling: Collecting and compiling data to develop new findings.

Once the analyst finished looking through the analyses for the mini challenges, she created a new Sandbox called "Paraiso Activities" in the Projects page in her own folder and copied all the notes and images into a new Sandbox. She began making sense of her observations by creating groups and adding links, organizing the information in a way that made sense to her.

The objects gathered in the Sandbox are used to construct meanings, interpretations, analytical frameworks, and arguments. The analyst re-organized and rearranged this saved data using various methods provided by the Sandbox. Notes, images, and key players were copied into the new Sandbox and grouped or linked to make sense of the analyst's observation. In Figure 4, key players in each challenge were collected in a group called "People" while information that had to do with health and medicine were grouped in a category called "Health and Medical", as this helped the analyst find information that might link the challenges together.

Figure 4: a) Observations and key objects saved from other challenges are copied into the new Sandbox. b) Items are then grouped according to subject to find cross-references. c) The Health and Medical group shows there is related information on health issues across datasets, including the tenet of disallowing treatment, interference by department of health, and gunning down doctors and nurses.

Evidence Marshaling: Using assertions to weigh hypotheses.

After the analyst finished categorizing and linking the information, she had many hypotheses of how the challenges may link together and so she made a Sandbox to write them down, as shown in Figure 5.

The Sandbox supported the analysts in the development and assessment of meaningful hypotheses, which were captured as assertions. These assertions make explicit the points the analysts were trying to prove or disprove. Evidence gathered from other Sandboxes, including notes, events, ideas, and concepts that supported or refuted these hypotheses, were continuously added to the assertion, helping weigh the strength of the hypotheses. The type of evidence (supporting or refuting) is determined when added. Dragging evidence into the assertion from the right side makes it a supporting argument, while dragging from the left makes the evidence a refutation. The analyst was also able to change or adjust the weight, if needed. Pieces of evidence that refute the assertion have a red "-" sign on their icon while pieces of evidence that support the assertion have a green "+" sign on their icon. An evidence weight bar on the top of an assertion shows the strength of the hypothesis and assertions can be embedded to provide "if this is true, then that must be true" multi-hypotheses. Embedded assertions only add weight to the parent assertion if it is proven to be positive or negative on its own.

The analyst can alternate viewing multiple Sandboxes by creating shortcuts from one Sandbox to another Sandbox. Multiple Sandboxes can be opened in multiple browsers too. A list of ideas to help prove the hypotheses are listed on the side to act as a reminder (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Initial hypotheses in the Sandbox. a) Possibilities were made into assertions to be proven or disproven. b) Evidence can be copied to the Sandbox from the Pasteboard. c) Evidence can be designated to be supporting or refuting in the assertions. d) Shortcuts were made to other analyses for ease of moving through analyses to gather evidence. Clicking on the gray arrow next to the Shortcut will open the designated Sandbox. e) A list of next steps was noted to help the analyst remember her thoughts.

Once she has exhausted all the findings made by existing analyses, she began making a new analyses to prove some of her hypotheses. She began with GeoTime.

Cross-Referencing: Layering multiple datasets to find commonalities

GeoTime helps the analyst see patterns of events, relationships, and interactions over time within a geospatial (or any conceptual or diagrammatic) context and was used to analyze the migrant data in Challenge #2 and the cell phone data in Challenge #3. However GeoTime also allows users to overlay multiple datasets in different layers so information can be combined or filtered depending on the needs of the current analysis. Knowing that the calls from Isla Del Sueno were generated over ten days and that the dates were within those given for the migration data, as well as that maps of the island were given for both challenges, the analyst decided to combine the two datasets together on top of the map with the cell towers on the island to explore the connections. The map of the island can be layered over the world map to maintain its accurate geographical location. The cell phone call dataset was imported into GeoTime as the first data layer, the migration dataset as the second layer, and then the two datasets were examined together in a flattened view. The analyst then isolated the characters of interest found from Challenge #3, which were ID's 1, 2, 3, 5, 200, 97,107, 137, 306, and 309.

It can be seen in Figure 6 that when both layers are in view, calls are concentrated in the network towers closest to the three major points the migrations were being launched from. The analyst made this observation in the Sandbox in order to help add to her hypotheses.

Figure 6: The white circles represent the migration boats and the centre dots represent boats that have landed (blue) or interdicted (red). The circles not surrounded by white represent the identified locations of calls that were made or received and each color represents a character of interest. The triangles are calls that were made or received without a specific location (the mapping of the triangles are calculated based on the two closest (temporally) calls made by the person). The launching point of the boats are within the same 3 areas as the phone calls, which are approximately grid 1, 11, and 22.

Next, she viewed the data in 3D to explore the pattern a little more. Each person is defined as a target and each circle represents their location in time when making a call. Every color represents a different person and solid lines indicate a movement of the target while dotted lines represent a communication between two targets, in this case, a phone call. She took the IDs that were of interest from Challenge #3 and isolated the data by person to examine their movement.

In Figure 7, the analyst isolated ID 5 and 306, who have been identified as the same person (Estaban Catalano). It can be seen that Estaban Catalano (5) travels between two launch points.

Figure 7: Caller ID 5, represented by green, and Caller ID 306, represented by blue are both Estaban Catalano. As caller ID 5, during the first few days of the cell data, he moves one end of the island and the center of the island, both of which are launch points for the boats. As caller ID 306, during the last few days of the data, he continues his usual movement between one end of the island and the center.

Combining: Using multiple tools at the same time

In a new Sandbox that is dedicated to this particular analysis, as shown in Figure 8, the analyst made these observations by making notes for new observations and new assertions when possible hypotheses were created. Screenshots of GeoTime were then uploaded and remaining questions for the scenario were created. These were used as evidence to help develop the initial hypotheses, proving that the migration and cell data are indeed linked, while forming the new hypothesis that the high-level Paraiso members are organizing the illegal migrations out of the island. The analyst copied these observations and assertions to the Pasteboard and created a shortcut to the Hypotheses Sandbox to add the new insight as evidence that the calls were made to organize migration.

Figure 8: The Sandbox of the Migration and Call analysis. a) Images from GeoTime are uploaded to nSpace2. b) Observations from the images are noted on the side. c) New hypotheses are formed. d) Questions are noted to develop new threads. e) A shortcut to Hypotheses is made for developing original thoughts.

Before the analyst exited GeoTime, she decided to take all the important people she had found through individual challenges and cross-reference them with the migration data. Using the Find function, she typed in each person's family name and the screen names of the people of interest in the WikiEdits page, as well as variations of their names. GeoTime allows Boolean searches using AND, OR, and brackets and all records that meet the search criteria are returned and data from each field is displayed when hovering over the fields.

Knowing that the analyst for Challenge #2 made discoveries that Jesus Vidro and Eduardo Catalano were on the same boat three times, she began with searching for their names. Figure 9 shows the search for "Vidro AND Catalano" and three records showed up.

Figure 9: Searching for "Vidro AND Catalano" returned three records, showing that they were on the same boat three times, and twice they were interdicted.

Figure 10 shows that the analyst can highlight all three records and isolated them on the map by clicking on "Show Only" to find the location of their boats, providing similar results as Challenge #2.

Figure 10: Events that are associated with Jesus Vidro and Eduardo Catalano were isolated. The red dots indicate the two interdictions and the blue line shows a landing in Mexico.

Figure 11 shows the search for VictoriaV of Challenge #1. Victoria OR VictoriaV was used as the search term and all the variations that were returned names from the passenger roster was copied into the Sandbox for pattern identification. Figure 12 shows that there are a few links between the migration data and the wiki data. However, the link of last names for Victoria Tafoya and Savanna Tafoya is the strongest because family is so important to Paraiso supporters. Further, VictoriaV and Savanna on Wiki Edits often support each other in their edit; thus, it was hypothesized that VictoriaV and Savanna are the two Tafoyas.

Figure 11: Typing "Victoria OR VictoriaV" returns 6 records that contain Victoria in the dataset, all of which were Victoriano. Hovering over the Passenger Roster field provides full data in the tooltip.

Figure 12: All variations of names are recorded in nSpace by factions found in challenge one and any links between the variations are drawn. a) Two members of the same faction shared the same last name. b) A name matching Amado and a name matching Victoria shared the same boat. c) A name matching Savanna and a name matching Agustin shared the same boat. d) A hypothesis is made that Savanna and Victoria are the two people from WikiEdits.

Linking: Creating the Paraiso social network

At this point, the analyst felt that a social network is beginning to emerge and decided to make a Sandbox to analyze the main players and their relations. She took all the family members and put them into their family group and drew links between them to show the relationship within the family as well as across different families, labelling the links as appropriate. Figure 13 shows strong connections between the Vidro and Catalano family, but less connection with the Tafoya family. An assertion was made that there are three major families in the movement but there is no evidence to prove the Tafoya family's relationship with the other two families.

Figure 13: The Sandbox for the Paraiso social network shows strong connections between the Vidro and Catalano families. Every member is directly or indirected associated with a member of the other family. The Tafoya family, however, do not have any direct associations with the other two families. Further, there are no connections between Ramon Katalanow and any other members of the Paraiso Movement.

The analyst copied all the observations from her analysis to the Pasteboard in order to marshal the evidence for her hypotheses. After adding the evidence, she was reminded by her To Do list group that she was to make a timeline and check the wiki edits page for information on bombings. She started by making a timeline using a new Sandbox. Again, a shortcut is created between the Timeline Sandbox and the Paraiso Activities Sandbox so she could check for the possible planning of the explosion and copy the dates and events faster.

After the timeline was made, the analyst made notes of the observations she made from the timeline and copied them to the Pasteboard to add to the hypotheses she made earlier. She noted that the hypothesis of the calls being made to organize explosions was refuted due to a large time gap and that there is a lack of representation in Florida given the members migration dates and locations, as shown in Figure 14.

Figure 14: Timeline of important events with observations made on the right side. It was noted that the timing of the calls from the island and the reference to bombs from the wiki page might be a little far from the actual time of bombing. No information about explosives was found from supporters on the wiki. It was also observed that none of the Paraiso members were in Florida at the time of the bombing.

Concluding: Finalizing hypotheses and eliminating possibilities

Going back to the hypotheses page, the analyst added the new observations to the assertions. After placing the proper evidence in each assertion and adjusting the weight according to the strength of the evidence, she observed that the hypothesis with the most support is that calls were made on the island to organize the migration, and not the explosion. She also noted that there was no evidence to prove that supporters on the Wikipedia page had anything to do with the explosion. Finally, for the theory that the explosion at the DOH is affiliated with the Paraiso movement, there is not enough evidence to incriminate any known member of the movement.

Figure 15: Final Hypothesis Sandbox. The three hypotheses for how the challenges are connected were compared and evidence show that it is the high-level members of the movement who are coordinating the migration movements. There is a lack of evidence to prove the assocation between the explosion at the DOH and the Paraiso movement.

After the analyst concluded her analysis, she began to make notes for the next steps that need to be taken for further investigation. She noticed that her question about why the members of the Paraiso Movement were leaving the island could be answered and thus she scanned her Pasteboard for any saved evidence and noticed that she had some thoughts from previous analyses, such as "Mexico has banned the movement" that could be used to develop her hypotheses.

Figure 16: Next Steps Sandbox. Issues that needed to be further investigated are noted in the Sandbox and more evidence were added by examining the Pasteboard.

Reporting: Summarizing without losing detail

When she has completed her analysis, the analyst decided to make a Sandbox with a summary of her findings so she can write the debrief and show her evidence to her colleagues. She made a list of activities that were important to the scenario and linked the activities that are associated with the Paraiso movement. She made shortcuts to the Sandboxes that provided evidence for her conclusions, in case other analysts wanted to drill down on the analysis. Finally, she placed all her analysis into the Shared Folders panel so she can work with her colleagues to finalize the scenario.

Figure 17: Summary Sandbox. a) Activities not associated with the Paraiso Movement. b) Activities associated with the movement. c) Shorcuts to the Sandbox that contains the analysis related to the activity.

Final Verification

Once the nodes and link text files were completed, a social network was generated from the final plot. The files were sent to an analyst working on GeoTime Configurable Spaces to generate a diagram for the social network of the movement.

Figure 18: Paraiso Social Network. When seen in Configurable Spaces, the size of each node represents their weight in the social network. The orange links highlight bidrectional links. We can see that Ferdinando Catalano is the main person who keeps the network together.It is important to keep in mind that the cell phone data that connects most of the high level members together are only in 2006.